← Serie B 2019 · Sat, Feb 15, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: N. Baroni
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Spezia win | 52% | 1.91 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.40 |
| Ascoli win | 19% | 5.37 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ascoli −0.75 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Spezia −0.75 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.81 |
| Over | 46% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Michele Troiano · Ascoli |
| 30' | 🟨 | Salvador Ferrer · Spezia |
| 30' | ⚽ | Leonardo Morosini · Ascoli |
| 43' | 🟨 | Leonardo Sernicola · Ascoli |
| 49' | 🟨 | Luca Mora · Spezia |
| 55' | 🟨 | Michele Troiano · Ascoli |
| 55' | 🟥 | Michele Troiano · Ascoli |
| 60' | 🟨 | Matteo Ricci · Spezia |
| 66' | ⚽ | Giuseppe Mastinu · Spezia |
| 74' | ⚽ | Emmanuel Gyasi · Spezia |
| 86' | ⚽ | M'Bala Nzola · Spezia |
| 87' | 🟨 | M'Bala Nzola · Spezia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gianluca Scamacca · Ascoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 0 |
| 11 | Fouls | 16 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Spezia | Ascoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.40 |
| venue | Stadio Alberto Picco |
| coach days | 229.00 | 45.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 1.65 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1532.37 | 1428.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 44.30 | -17.23 |
| eye test v1 | 0.25 | -0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.48 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.80 | 59.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.75 |
| league points | 37.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.00 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 3.88 | 7.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.61 | 1.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.69 | 0.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 25.71 | 25.52 |
| state index | 0.76 | -0.64 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.47 | -0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |