⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Cosenza 0–1 Benevento

← Serie B 2019 · Sun, Feb 9, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Serra

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Benevento win47%2.05
Draw31%3.22
Cosenza win22%4.28

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cosenza +0.552%1.88
Benevento +0.548%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under59%1.65
Over41%2.32

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

25'🟨Tiago Casasola · Cosenza
30'🟨Mario Prezioso · Cosenza
33'⚽Roberto Insigne · Benevento
39'🟨Pasquale Schiattarella · Benevento
40'🟨Aníbal Capela · Cosenza
42'🟨Nicholas Pierini · Cosenza
53'🟥Massimo Volta · Benevento
83'🟨Salvatore Monaco · Cosenza
90'🟨Luca Caldirola · Benevento

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
14Shots8
8On target5
2Corners5
27Fouls12
5Yellow cards2
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCosenzaBenevento
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.240.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.05
box share (last 5)0.560.57
cards avg (last 5)3.403.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla
coach days1165.00253.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.12
corner diff avg (last 5)0.802.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.002.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.805.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.792.88
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.08
dominance (last 5)0.500.60
elo1418.541629.16
elo momentum (last 5)-24.8810.73
eye test v1-0.630.99
eye trend v1-0.31-0.38
first sub minute (last 10)54.4054.20
form points (last 5)3.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.601.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.602.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.921.32
h2 goals (last 10)0.401.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.50
keeper form v10.640.84
league points20.0051.00
league rank18.001.00
matches since blank2.0013.00
matches since clean sheet4.003.00
matches since win4.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.8076.60
possession avg (last 5)44.4046.80
rest days6.007.00
scorer concentration0.320.18
season ppg0.912.32
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.205.80
shots for avg (last 5)10.6016.60
skill v1-0.67-0.23
sot against avg (last 5)3.803.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.506.30
sot for avg (last 3)3.336.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.006.20
squad age26.3830.60
state index-0.650.81
sterile dominance v1-0.63-1.16
threat rate (last 10)0.270.38
threat rate (last 3)0.250.33
threat rate (last 5)0.270.38
venue ppg (last 5)1.402.60