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Juve Stabia 1–2 Perugia

← Serie B 2019 · Sun, Feb 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Minelli

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Juve Stabia win34%2.84
Perugia win34%2.88
Draw32%3.00

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Juve Stabia +050%1.93
Perugia +050%1.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under59%1.65
Over41%2.32

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

18'⚽ (pen)Pietro Iemmello · Perugia
25'⚽Luigi Canotto · Juve Stabia
33'🟨Amara Konate · Perugia
39'🟨Pasquale Fazio · Juve Stabia
43'🟨Gabriele Angella · Perugia
52'🟨Mardochee Nzita · Perugia
62'🟨Bright Addae · Juve Stabia
71'⚽ (pen)Pietro Iemmello · Perugia
90'🟨Guglielmo Vicario · Perugia
90'🟨Federico Melchiorri · Perugia

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
13Shots20
2On target7
8Corners6
14Fouls24
2Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricJuve StabiaPerugia
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.21
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.28
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.620.51
cards avg (last 5)2.003.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Comunale Romeo Menti
coach days946.0032.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.08
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.60-0.60
corners against avg (last 5)6.205.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.604.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.312.21
defensive leak (last 5)0.020.10
dominance (last 5)0.430.53
elo1368.691464.81
elo momentum (last 5)49.86-8.37
eye test v1-0.76-0.41
eye trend v1-0.05-0.31
first sub minute (last 10)53.6062.30
form points (last 5)11.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.800.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.921.10
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.30
keeper form v10.630.69
league points28.0030.00
league rank14.0010.00
matches since blank6.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.4079.00
possession avg (last 5)46.2052.40
rest days8.005.75
scorer concentration0.320.47
season ppg1.331.43
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.800.80
shots for avg (last 5)9.6011.20
skill v1-0.590.38
sot against avg (last 5)3.202.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.003.60
sot for avg (last 3)2.002.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.803.40
squad age27.2726.25
state index0.24-0.17
sterile dominance v1-0.220.38
threat rate (last 10)0.180.25
threat rate (last 3)0.180.20
threat rate (last 5)0.230.23
venue ppg (last 5)2.400.80