← Serie B 2019 · Sun, Jan 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Serra
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Crotone win | 56% | 1.70 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.59 |
| Spezia win | 17% | 5.76 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Crotone −0.75 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Spezia −0.75 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.83 |
| Over | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Simy · Crotone |
| 34' | ⚽ | M'Bala Nzola · Spezia |
| 38' | 🟨 | Matteo Ricci · Spezia |
| 47' | 🟨 | Salvador Ferrer · Spezia |
| 47' | ⚽ (pen) | Maxi López · Crotone |
| 53' | 🟨 | Emmanuel Gyasi · Spezia |
| 78' | ⚽ | Antonino Ragusa · Spezia |
| 84' | 🟨 | Luca Mora · Spezia |
| 89' | 🟨 | Vladimir Golemić · Crotone |
| 90' | 🟨 | Luca Marrone · Crotone |
| 90' | 🟨 | Junior Messias · Crotone |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 8 |
| 18 | Fouls | 19 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crotone | Spezia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| venue | Stadio Ezio Scida |
| coach days | 421.00 | 209.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.03 | 1.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1538.53 | 1486.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.96 | 15.01 |
| eye test v1 | 0.55 | -0.64 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.80 | 52.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.84 |
| league points | 34.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.20 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 5.75 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.70 | 1.32 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.34 | -0.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 28.93 | 24.33 |
| state index | 0.65 | 0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |