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Pescara 0–0 Chievo

← Serie B 2019 · Sun, Dec 29, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: N. Baroni

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pescara win38%2.62
Draw32%3.10
Chievo win30%3.22

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pescara +055%1.76
Chievo +045%2.17

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under59%1.64
Over41%2.35

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

1'🟨Edoardo Masciangelo · Pescara
5'🟨Giovanni Di Noia · Chievo
61'🟨Boštjan Cesar · Chievo
88'🟨Gennaro Scognamiglio · Pescara
90'🟨Sauli Väisänen · Chievo
90'🟨Lorenzo Dickmann · Chievo

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
16Shots8
2On target3
4Corners1
8Fouls18
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricPescaraChievo
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.28
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.430.68
cards avg (last 5)2.202.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Adriatico-Giovanni Cornacchia
coach days181.00181.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.10
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.12
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.60-1.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.604.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.003.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.602.17
defensive leak (last 5)0.180.12
dominance (last 5)0.500.43
elo1478.031491.80
elo momentum (last 5)-17.31-27.01
eye test v1-0.22-0.55
eye trend v1-0.12-0.16
first sub minute (last 10)61.0048.20
form points (last 5)5.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.160.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.001.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.20
keeper form v10.610.70
league points25.0025.00
league rank10.0011.00
matches since blank2.004.00
matches since clean sheet0.003.00
matches since win0.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.2074.00
possession avg (last 5)56.0051.40
rest days2.902.90
scorer concentration0.390.18
season ppg1.391.39
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.60-3.20
shots for avg (last 5)10.4010.00
skill v10.94-0.20
sot against avg (last 5)3.206.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.403.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.003.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.603.40
squad age29.2026.92
state index-0.26-0.62
sterile dominance v10.730.12
threat rate (last 10)0.220.24
threat rate (last 3)0.210.19
threat rate (last 5)0.220.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.60