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Virtus Entella 2–0 Empoli

← Serie B 2019 · Sat, Dec 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Amabile

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Virtus Entella win39%2.46
Empoli win31%3.10
Draw30%3.24

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Empoli −0.2554%1.80
Virtus Entella −0.2546%2.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under51%1.91
Over49%1.97

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

34'🟨Frédéric Veseli · Empoli
38'⚽Claudio Morra · Virtus Entella
40'⚽Manuel De Luca · Virtus Entella
69'🟨Andrea Schenetti · Virtus Entella
70'🟥Jure Balkovec · Empoli

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
9Shots13
7On target3
6Corners3
17Fouls10
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricVirtus EntellaEmpoli
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.25
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
box share (last 5)0.570.47
cards avg (last 5)3.201.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Comunale Chiavari
coach days531.0043.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.06
corner diff avg (last 5)0.400.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.804.60
corners for avg (last 5)6.204.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.682.15
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.17
dominance (last 5)0.510.50
elo1439.151566.04
elo momentum (last 5)12.76-49.14
eye test v10.40-0.03
eye trend v10.430.06
first sub minute (last 10)57.6058.00
form points (last 5)7.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.002.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.420.99
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.35
keeper form v10.710.72
league points22.0021.00
league rank9.0011.00
matches since blank10.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.009.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.2083.40
possession avg (last 5)49.6053.80
rest days6.007.00
scorer concentration0.380.31
season ppg1.471.40
shot diff avg (last 5)0.001.00
shots for avg (last 5)12.2013.20
skill v1-0.510.91
sot against avg (last 5)4.205.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.404.20
sot for avg (last 3)6.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.003.60
squad age27.3925.88
state index0.03-0.52
sterile dominance v1-0.660.18
threat rate (last 10)0.290.29
threat rate (last 3)0.390.27
threat rate (last 5)0.300.29
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.80