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Pordenone 2–1 Trapani

← Serie B 2019 Β· Sun, Nov 3, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: D. Amabile

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pordenone win49%2.00
Draw28%3.48
Trapani win23%4.35

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pordenone βˆ’0.551%1.93
Trapani βˆ’0.549%1.96

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under52%1.87
Over48%2.01

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'⚽Michele Camporese · Pordenone
23'🟨Salvatore Aloi · Trapani
65'🟨Antonio Candela · Trapani
68'🟨Michele Fornasier · Trapani
69'🟨Lorenzo Del Prete · Trapani
70'⚽ (pen)Salvatore Burrai · Pordenone
89'⚽ (pen)Anthony Taugourdeau · Trapani
90'πŸŸ₯M'Bala Nzola Β· Trapani

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
19Shots14
5On target3
8Corners7
12Fouls8
0Yellow cards4
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricPordenoneTrapani
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.45
blown lead rate (last 20)β€”0.10
box share (last 5)0.620.54
cards avg (last 5)3.802.60
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueDacia Arena
coach days626.00125.00
comeback rate (last 20)β€”0.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.16
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.20-1.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.805.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.604.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.272.04
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.13
dominance (last 5)0.480.46
elo1504.661421.66
elo momentum (last 5)6.89-3.13
eye test v10.360.68
eye trend v10.050.02
first sub minute (last 10)59.1048.00
form points (last 5)8.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.202.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.851.29
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.40
ht lead rate (last 20)β€”0.25
keeper form v10.740.72
league points15.006.00
league rank11.0020.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.005.00
matches since win0.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.2077.20
possession avg (last 5)41.6047.00
rest days4.753.75
scorer concentration0.250.29
season ppg1.500.60
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.40-1.80
shots for avg (last 5)13.4014.00
skill v1-1.05-0.18
sot against avg (last 5)5.006.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.405.10
sot for avg (last 3)5.335.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.005.60
squad age26.9226.65
state index0.17-0.61
sterile dominance v1-1.41-0.53
threat rate (last 10)0.350.26
threat rate (last 3)0.300.34
threat rate (last 5)0.340.30
venue ppg (last 5)2.200.80