⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Frosinone Calcio 3–0 Trapani

← Serie B 2019 · Wed, Oct 30, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: I. Robilotta

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Frosinone Calcio win64%1.50
Draw24%4.03
Trapani win12%8.14

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Frosinone Calcio −152%1.88
Trapani −148%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under52%1.87
Over48%2.01

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

1'⚽Camillo Ciano · Frosinone Calcio
11'🟨Marco Moscati · Trapani
49'🟨Stefano Scognamillo · Trapani
53'🟨Salvatore Aloi · Trapani
54'⚽Camillo Ciano · Frosinone Calcio
56'🟨Anthony Taugourdeau · Trapani
60'🟨Nicolò Brighenti · Frosinone Calcio
64'⚽Camillo Ciano · Frosinone Calcio
71'🟨Francesco Bardi · Frosinone Calcio

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
18Shots20
8On target6
4Corners6
9Fouls18
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFrosinone CalcioTrapani
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.46
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.580.55
cards avg (last 5)3.201.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Benito Stirpe
coach days151.00121.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.16
corner diff avg (last 5)1.20-0.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.005.20
corners for avg (last 5)6.204.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.922.01
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.10
dominance (last 5)0.480.52
elo1490.761433.46
elo momentum (last 5)-10.198.27
eye test v10.690.63
eye trend v10.19-0.03
first sub minute (last 10)51.5048.80
form points (last 5)6.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.631.25
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.25
keeper form v10.680.74
league points10.006.00
league rank17.0020.00
matches since blank6.004.00
matches since clean sheet1.004.00
matches since win1.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.4076.20
possession avg (last 5)52.6045.40
rest days3.004.29
scorer concentration0.400.29
season ppg1.110.67
shot diff avg (last 5)0.200.40
shots for avg (last 5)12.8013.20
skill v10.73-0.38
sot against avg (last 5)4.405.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.404.70
sot for avg (last 3)6.004.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.405.60
squad age27.9027.12
state index-0.10-0.24
sterile dominance v1-0.02-0.63
threat rate (last 10)0.300.25
threat rate (last 3)0.370.31
threat rate (last 5)0.300.29
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.80