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Pisa 2–1 Salernitana

← Serie B 2019 · Tue, Oct 29, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Camplone

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pisa win39%2.60
Draw31%3.10
Salernitana win30%3.40

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Salernitana −0.2555%1.75
Pisa −0.2545%2.19

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under57%1.68
Over43%2.27

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'⚽Davide Di Quinzio · Pisa
11'🟨Francesco Di Tacchio · Salernitana
13'⚽Michael Fabbro · Pisa
54'🟨Milan Đurić · Salernitana
63'🟨Alessandro De Vitis · Pisa
75'🟨Marius Marin · Pisa
79'🟨Stefano Gori · Pisa
79'⚽Lamin Jallow · Salernitana
90'🟨Walter López · Salernitana

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
5Shots10
3On target6
0Corners2
21Fouls26
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricPisaSalernitana
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.690.59
cards avg (last 5)3.403.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueArena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani
coach days515.00120.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.20
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.20-1.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.005.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.803.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.201.41
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.12
dominance (last 5)0.470.35
elo1399.521407.71
elo momentum (last 5)-16.186.41
eye test v1-0.37-0.51
eye trend v1-0.19-0.10
first sub minute (last 10)57.9067.70
form points (last 5)2.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.321.10
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.15
keeper form v10.720.73
league points10.0015.00
league rank14.006.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet7.005.00
matches since win6.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.4084.80
possession avg (last 5)43.4052.20
rest days3.173.29
scorer concentration0.550.33
season ppg1.111.67
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.40-6.20
shots for avg (last 5)10.406.00
skill v1-0.600.95
sot against avg (last 5)4.404.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.403.20
sot for avg (last 3)2.332.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.203.00
squad age28.2226.94
state index-0.80-0.42
sterile dominance v1-0.691.14
threat rate (last 10)0.280.19
threat rate (last 3)0.260.14
threat rate (last 5)0.280.16
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.80