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Juve Stabia 4–2 Pordenone

← Serie B 2019 Β· Sat, Oct 19, 01:00 PM UTC Β· ref: E. Abbattista

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Juve Stabia win39%2.62
Draw31%3.25
Pordenone win30%3.28

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pordenone βˆ’0.2553%1.83
Juve Stabia βˆ’0.2547%2.06

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under57%1.70
Over43%2.22

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'⚽Adriano Mezavilla · Juve Stabia
13'⚽Gianvito Misuraca · Pordenone
16'⚽Francesco Forte · Juve Stabia
20'⚽Simone Calvano · Juve Stabia
28'⚽Luigi Canotto · Juve Stabia
55'🟨Simone Calvano · Juve Stabia
60'🟨Magnus Troest · Juve Stabia
61'🟨Luca Strizzolo · Pordenone
65'🟨Leonardo Candellone · Pordenone
82'🟨Roberto Zammarini · Pordenone
85'⚽ (og)

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

4Half-time score1
12Shots17
8On target6
5Corners6
17Fouls18
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricJuve StabiaPordenone
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.250.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.31
blown lead rate (last 20)0.10β€”
box share (last 5)0.630.55
cards avg (last 5)4.203.60
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStadio Comunale Romeo Menti
Giacomo CalΓ²
Β· Pordenone
coach days840.00611.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.05β€”
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.040.10
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.400.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.604.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.205.20
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.07
dominance (last 5)0.430.50
elo1274.681518.36
elo momentum (last 5)-0.9517.25
eye test v1-0.27-0.10
eye trend v1-0.39-0.03
first sub minute (last 10)55.5762.00
form points (last 5)4.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.200.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.82β€”
h2 goals (last 10)0.60β€”
ht lead rate (last 20)0.10β€”
keeper form v1β€”0.81
league points4.0011.00
league rank20.0010.00
matches since blank1.007.00
matches since clean sheet4.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)67.0071.00
possession avg (last 5)39.8040.00
rest days13.8814.00
scorer concentrationβ€”0.33
season ppg0.571.57
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.000.40
shots for avg (last 5)11.2012.80
skill v1-1.71-1.28
sot against avg (last 5)5.204.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.574.00
sot for avg (last 3)2.674.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.404.00
squad age27.6727.86
state index-0.980.29
sterile dominance v1-1.28-1.50
threat rate (last 10)0.260.37
threat rate (last 3)0.180.37
threat rate (last 5)0.280.34
venue ppg (last 5)0.20β€”