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Pescara 1–2 Spezia

← Serie B 2019 · Sat, Oct 19, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Massimi

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pescara win39%2.70
Spezia win31%3.40
Draw30%3.17

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pescara +051%1.90
Spezia +049%2.01

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under53%1.83
Over47%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

23'⚽José Machín · Pescara
38'🟨Luca Vignali · Spezia
43'🟨Mirko Drudi · Pescara
53'🟨Ledian Memushaj · Pescara
69'⚽Paolo Bartolomei · Spezia
71'⚽Sveinn Aron Guðjohnsen · Spezia
78'🟨Luca Mora · Spezia
79'🟨Matteo Brunori · Pescara
80'🟨José Machín · Pescara
90'🟨Sveinn Aron Guðjohnsen · Spezia

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
8Shots10
2On target2
4Corners4
9Fouls21
4Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricPescaraSpezia
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.200.22
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.240.26
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.510.51
cards avg (last 5)2.402.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Adriatico-Giovanni Cornacchia
coach days110.00110.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.10
congestion 21d1.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.07
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.400.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.004.60
corners for avg (last 5)3.605.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.372.51
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.27
dominance (last 5)0.480.57
elo1476.981441.22
elo momentum (last 5)-1.88-54.07
eye test v1-0.62-0.25
eye trend v1-0.12-0.05
first sub minute (last 10)59.7057.80
form points (last 5)7.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-1.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.402.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.071.06
h2 goals (last 10)1.200.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.20
keeper form v10.690.60
league points10.004.00
league rank11.0018.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.006.00
matches since win0.006.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.8080.60
possession avg (last 5)50.0055.00
rest days12.7514.00
scorer concentration0.380.29
season ppg1.430.57
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.202.80
shots for avg (last 5)10.8011.60
skill v10.080.71
sot against avg (last 5)5.004.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.603.50
sot for avg (last 3)2.672.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.803.40
squad age29.2425.58
state index-0.05-1.07
sterile dominance v10.040.39
threat rate (last 10)0.240.22
threat rate (last 3)0.290.25
threat rate (last 5)0.240.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.80