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Trapani 1–2 Juve Stabia

← Serie B 2019 Β· Sat, Oct 5, 04:00 PM UTC Β· ref: J. Sacchi

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Trapani win45%2.17
Draw30%3.25
Juve Stabia win25%3.91

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Trapani βˆ’0.2553%1.84
Juve Stabia βˆ’0.2547%2.06

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under57%1.68
Over43%2.27

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'⚽Anthony Taugourdeau · Trapani
34'🟨Stefano Scognamillo · Trapani
76'🟨Alessandro Mallamo · Juve Stabia
79'⚽Luigi Canotto · Juve Stabia
80'🟨Luigi Canotto · Juve Stabia
88'⚽Francesco Forte · Juve Stabia
89'🟨Francesco Forte · Juve Stabia
90'🟨M'Bala Nzola · Trapani

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
10Shots12
3On target7
3Corners4
24Fouls9
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricTrapaniJuve Stabia
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.460.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.590.20
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.520.22
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.540.59
cards avg (last 5)2.204.40
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStadio Polisportivo Provinciale
coach days96.00826.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.01
corner diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.205.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.205.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.25β€”
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.12
dominance (last 5)0.570.43
elo1444.161258.60
elo momentum (last 5)-17.96-30.76
eye test v10.65-0.83
eye trend v10.300.11
first sub minute (last 10)51.8056.00
form points (last 5)4.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-1.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.202.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.290.71
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.10
keeper form v10.73β€”
league points4.001.00
league rank17.0020.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.003.00
matches since win0.0020.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.4066.20
possession avg (last 5)52.4039.60
rest days6.137.13
scorer concentration0.40β€”
season ppg0.670.17
shot diff avg (last 5)2.20-3.80
shots for avg (last 5)11.0011.60
skill v10.31-1.81
sot against avg (last 5)4.005.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.303.00
sot for avg (last 3)6.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.603.00
squad age27.3929.09
state index-0.37-2.13
sterile dominance v10.33-1.46
threat rate (last 10)0.230.27
threat rate (last 3)0.250.31
threat rate (last 5)0.230.30
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.20