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Chievo 1–1 Pordenone

← Serie B 2019 · Sun, Sep 29, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Massimi

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Chievo win46%2.07
Draw29%3.32
Pordenone win24%4.01

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pordenone −0.552%1.88
Chievo −0.548%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.76
Over45%2.13

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

10'⚽Luca Strizzolo · Pordenone
11'🟨Boštjan Cesar · Chievo
26'🟨Lorenzo Dickmann · Chievo
41'🟨Luca Garritano · Chievo
42'🟨Luca Strizzolo · Pordenone
51'🟨Luca Strizzolo · Pordenone
51'🟥Luca Strizzolo · Pordenone
54'⚽Filip Đorđević · Chievo
55'🟨Lucas Chiaretti · Pordenone
57'🟨Lucas Chiaretti · Pordenone
57'🟥Lucas Chiaretti · Pordenone
69'🟨Alessandro Bassoli · Pordenone

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
20Shots6
8On target2
9Corners4
14Fouls17
3Yellow cards5
0Red cards2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricChievoPordenone
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.440.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.28
blown lead rate (last 20)0.05—
box share (last 5)0.630.47
cards avg (last 5)2.402.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi
coach days90.00591.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.00—
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.160.12
corner diff avg (last 5)1.000.40
corners against avg (last 5)3.204.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.204.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.21—
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.10
dominance (last 5)0.530.50
elo1501.361497.77
elo momentum (last 5)3.29-2.23
eye test v10.10-0.15
eye trend v10.61-0.14
first sub minute (last 10)48.0061.80
form points (last 5)6.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.79—
h2 goals (last 10)0.40—
ht lead rate (last 20)0.10—
keeper form v10.710.70
league points6.007.00
league rank14.0013.00
matches since blank5.005.00
matches since clean sheet2.002.00
matches since win2.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.2070.40
possession avg (last 5)53.0041.00
rest days3.754.75
scorer concentration0.430.29
season ppg1.201.40
shot diff avg (last 5)0.60-0.40
shots for avg (last 5)10.8013.20
skill v10.53-1.28
sot against avg (last 5)3.203.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.003.80
sot for avg (last 3)5.003.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.403.80
squad age27.2627.39
state index-0.13-0.11
sterile dominance v10.44-1.58
threat rate (last 10)0.200.35
threat rate (last 3)0.220.29
threat rate (last 5)0.230.35
venue ppg (last 5)0.80—