⚽ Tomulator
Overview
β—ˆDashboardπŸ“…Today's gamesβ—ŽState of play
Money
πŸ’·Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasonsπŸ“Metricsβ–€Data sources
Engine room
🎲SimulationsπŸ§ͺLab≣Catalog?How this works

Pordenone 1–1 Benevento

← Serie B 2019 Β· Tue, Sep 24, 07:00 PM UTC Β· ref: M. Serra

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Benevento win40%2.38
Draw31%3.14
Pordenone win29%3.40

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pordenone +0.2553%1.88
Benevento +0.2547%2.05

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.77
Over45%2.12

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

12'⚽Oliver Kragl · Benevento
18'🟨Alberto Almici · Pordenone
22'🟨Gaetano Monachello · Pordenone
38'🟨Christian Maggio · Benevento
40'⚽Michele Camporese · Pordenone
49'🟨Lucas Chiaretti · Pordenone
81'🟨Përparim Hetemaj · Benevento
84'🟨Luca Strizzolo · Pordenone

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
14Shots12
4On target6
5Corners3
21Fouls24
4Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricPordenoneBenevento
accuracy ratio (last 10)β€”0.42
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.25
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.35
blown lead rate (last 20)β€”0.00
box share (last 5)0.500.61
cards avg (last 5)β€”0.60
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueDacia Arena
coach days586.00115.00
comeback rate (last 20)β€”0.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)β€”0.13
corner diff avg (last 5)β€”0.40
corners against avg (last 5)β€”4.60
corners for avg (last 5)β€”5.00
corners volatility (last 10)β€”3.21
defensive leak (last 5)β€”0.07
dominance (last 5)β€”0.61
elo1497.511566.53
elo momentum (last 5)β€”38.51
eye test v1-0.030.21
eye trend v1β€”-0.62
first sub minute (last 10)64.7552.00
form points (last 5)β€”13.00
goal diff avg (last 5)β€”1.40
goals against avg (last 5)β€”0.60
goals for avg (last 5)β€”2.00
goals volatility (last 10)β€”1.52
h2 goals (last 10)β€”1.40
ht lead rate (last 20)β€”0.30
league points6.0010.00
league rank11.002.00
matches since blank4.003.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.0077.80
possession avg (last 5)40.0050.40
rest days3.253.25
scorer concentration0.330.17
season ppg1.502.50
shot diff avg (last 5)β€”5.20
shots for avg (last 5)β€”14.40
skill v1-1.290.11
sot against avg (last 5)3.503.20
sot for avg (last 10)β€”6.40
sot for avg (last 3)3.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.004.60
squad age28.0830.35
state index-0.110.89
sterile dominance v1-1.68-0.19
threat rate (last 10)β€”0.30
threat rate (last 3)0.300.33
threat rate (last 5)0.360.28
venue ppg (last 5)β€”2.00