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Ascoli 2–0 Livorno

← Serie B 2019 · Sat, Sep 14, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Rapuano

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ascoli win42%2.42
Draw31%3.10
Livorno win27%3.70

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Livorno −0.2552%1.85
Ascoli −0.2548%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under59%1.63
Over41%2.36

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

17'🟨Alberto Gerbo · Ascoli
27'🟨Moutir Chajia · Ascoli
43'⚽Alberto Gerbo · Ascoli
45'🟨Michel Morganella · Livorno
77'🟨Andrea Gasbarro · Livorno
84'🟨Manuel Marras · Livorno
90'🟨Nikola Ninković · Ascoli
90'🟨Andreaw Gravillon · Ascoli
90'⚽Nikola Ninković · Ascoli

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
11Shots9
4On target4
4Corners3
16Fouls19
4Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAscoliLivorno
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.510.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.450.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.570.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.300.10
box share (last 5)0.430.38
cards avg (last 5)1.602.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca
coach days105.00317.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.07
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.004.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.204.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.208.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.554.03
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.12
dominance (last 5)0.410.56
elo1422.661400.15
elo momentum (last 5)-14.524.83
eye test v10.01-0.42
eye trend v10.01-0.12
first sub minute (last 10)64.5058.60
form points (last 5)3.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.800.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.971.05
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.25
keeper form v10.70—
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet6.003.00
matches since win1.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.5073.00
possession avg (last 5)46.4049.80
rest days12.7513.75
season ppg1.500.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.402.80
shots for avg (last 5)9.2012.80
skill v1-0.50-0.43
sot against avg (last 5)4.203.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.503.70
sot for avg (last 3)5.003.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.203.80
squad age28.2427.49
state index-0.49-0.31
sterile dominance v10.14-0.00
threat rate (last 10)0.200.20
threat rate (last 3)0.260.18
threat rate (last 5)0.180.22
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.00