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Pescara 4–2 Pordenone

← Serie B 2019 Β· Sun, Sep 1, 04:00 PM UTC Β· ref: G. Ayroldi

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pescara win41%2.60
Draw31%3.10
Pordenone win28%3.80

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pescara +055%1.79
Pordenone +045%2.13

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under54%1.78
Over46%2.11

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'⚽ (pen)Cristian Galano · Pescara
11'⚽Davide Gavazzi · Pordenone
45'🟨Gennaro Scognamiglio · Pescara
45'⚽ (pen)Lucas Chiaretti · Pordenone
50'⚽Cristian Galano · Pescara
67'🟨Alberto Barison · Pordenone
71'⚽Marco Tumminello · Pescara
72'🟨Marco Tumminello · Pescara
88'🟨Ledian Memushaj · Pescara
88'🟨Lucas Chiaretti · Pordenone
90'⚽Luca Palmiero · Pescara

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
19Shots11
4On target2
5Corners3
17Fouls18
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricPescaraPordenone
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.46β€”
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.53β€”
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.49β€”
blown lead rate (last 20)0.10β€”
box share (last 5)0.71β€”
cards avg (last 5)2.20β€”
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStadio Adriatico-Giovanni Cornacchia
coach days62.00563.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.10β€”
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.10β€”
corner diff avg (last 5)0.20β€”
corners against avg (last 5)4.60β€”
corners for avg (last 5)4.80β€”
corners volatility (last 10)1.52β€”
defensive leak (last 5)0.08β€”
dominance (last 5)0.44β€”
elo1464.231515.74
elo momentum (last 5)-11.21β€”
eye test v10.18β€”
eye trend v10.28β€”
first sub minute (last 10)61.30β€”
form points (last 5)6.00β€”
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00β€”
goals against avg (last 5)1.20β€”
goals for avg (last 5)1.20β€”
goals volatility (last 10)0.92β€”
h2 goals (last 10)0.70β€”
ht lead rate (last 20)0.25β€”
keeper form v10.68β€”
matches since blank4.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.00β€”
possession avg (last 5)52.40β€”
rest days8.005.88
season ppg0.003.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.40β€”
shots for avg (last 5)11.20β€”
skill v10.48β€”
sot against avg (last 5)5.80β€”
sot for avg (last 10)4.00β€”
sot for avg (last 3)5.00β€”
sot for avg (last 5)4.60β€”
squad age30.1229.15
state index-0.130.16
sterile dominance v10.73β€”
threat rate (last 10)0.17β€”
threat rate (last 3)0.19β€”
threat rate (last 5)0.18β€”
venue ppg (last 5)1.80β€”