⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Chievo 1–1 Empoli

← Serie B 2019 · Fri, Aug 30, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Ghersini

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Empoli win36%2.70
Chievo win33%2.97
Draw31%3.20

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Empoli +052%1.85
Chievo +048%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.77
Over45%2.12

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

25'🟨Sauli Väisänen · Chievo
32'⚽Jacopo Dezi · Empoli
41'⚽Filip Đorđević · Chievo
50'🟨Frédéric Veseli · Empoli
90'🟨Jacopo Segre · Chievo
90'🟨Davide Frattesi · Empoli
90'🟨Antonino La Gumina · Empoli

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
14Shots13
5On target6
4Corners3
12Fouls15
0Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricChievoEmpoli
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.140.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.170.40
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.570.70
cards avg (last 5)3.001.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi
coach days60.0090.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.020.23
corner diff avg (last 5)-5.20-2.00
corners against avg (last 5)8.205.20
corners for avg (last 5)3.003.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.182.33
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.11
dominance (last 5)0.280.43
elo1489.171633.66
elo momentum (last 5)-20.7447.58
eye test v1-1.560.47
eye trend v1-0.410.25
first sub minute (last 10)54.1052.80
form points (last 5)2.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.401.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.202.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.711.06
h2 goals (last 10)0.401.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.25
keeper form v10.740.58
matches since blank1.007.00
matches since clean sheet1.004.00
matches since win6.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.2079.40
possession avg (last 5)41.2046.20
rest days5.005.13
season ppg0.003.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-7.60-3.80
shots for avg (last 5)5.409.20
skill v1-0.770.00
sot against avg (last 5)6.007.80
sot for avg (last 10)2.904.80
sot for avg (last 3)2.006.00
sot for avg (last 5)1.805.20
squad age26.1525.82
state index-0.970.67
sterile dominance v1-0.06-0.40
threat rate (last 10)0.200.25
threat rate (last 3)0.160.33
threat rate (last 5)0.180.29
venue ppg (last 5)0.400.80