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Kayserispor 1–2 Fenerbahce

← Süper Lig 2020 · Sat, May 15, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Halil Umut Meler, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce win58%1.65
Draw23%4.20
Kayserispor win19%5.25

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kayserispor +153%1.80
Fenerbahce +147%2.09

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over61%1.57
Under39%2.48

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'🟨Enner Valencia · Fenerbahce
18'⚽Pedro Henrique · Kayserispor
32'🟨Caner Erkin · Fenerbahce
44'🟨Karlo Muhar · Kayserispor
55'🟨İlhan Parlak · Kayserispor
88'🟨Aziz Behich · Kayserispor
88'🟨Pedro Henrique · Kayserispor
89'🟨İlhan Parlak · Kayserispor
89'🟥İlhan Parlak · Kayserispor
90'⚽ (pen)Enner Valencia · Fenerbahce
90'⚽

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
9Shots9
3On target4
2Corners11
14Fouls10
5Yellow cards2
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKayserisporFenerbahce
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.210.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.00
box share (last 5)0.560.66
cards avg (last 5)1.001.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueKadir Has Şehir Stadı
Serdar Aziz
· Fenerbahce
coach days75.0044.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d6.006.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.08
corner diff avg (last 5)1.604.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.003.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.608.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.152.41
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.10
dominance (last 5)0.450.58
elo1491.081698.19
elo momentum (last 5)20.33-2.60
eye test v1-0.271.42
eye trend v1-0.460.27
first sub minute (last 10)56.2052.40
form points (last 5)7.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.600.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.851.05
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.35
keeper form v10.690.74
league points52.0092.00
league rank14.002.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet0.003.00
matches since win4.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.0084.00
possession avg (last 5)42.6058.00
rest days4.004.00
scorer concentration0.300.15
season ppg1.162.04
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.606.20
shots for avg (last 5)9.6019.60
skill v1-0.261.21
sot against avg (last 5)3.403.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.906.10
sot for avg (last 3)1.678.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.207.20
squad age27.5230.83
state index-0.170.57
sterile dominance v1-0.160.03
threat rate (last 10)0.220.31
threat rate (last 3)0.200.35
threat rate (last 5)0.230.34
venue ppg (last 5)1.202.20