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Gaziantep 4–5 Rizespor

← Süper Lig 2020 · Tue, May 11, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Zorbay Kucuk, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gaziantep win50%1.90
Draw25%3.98
Rizespor win24%4.00

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gaziantep −0.551%1.90
Rizespor −0.549%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over61%1.58
Under39%2.49

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

-5'🟨Oğuz Ceylan · Gaziantep
6'⚽Tunay Torun · Rizespor
28'🟨Alexandru Maxim · Gaziantep
30'🟨Damjan Đoković · Rizespor
31'⚽İsmail Köybaşı · Rizespor
45'⚽Alexander Søderlund · Rizespor
47'⚽Alexandru Maxim · Gaziantep
48'⚽Muhammet Demir · Gaziantep
59'⚽ (pen)Erik Sabo · Rizespor
79'⚽Braian Samudio · Rizespor
85'🟨Gökhan Akkan

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score3
19Shots10
7On target6
9Corners3
14Fouls12
4Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGaziantepRizespor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.31
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.540.55
cards avg (last 5)1.801.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueGaziantep Stadyumu
· Rizespor
86'⚽Muhammet Demir · Gaziantep
88'⚽Papy Djilobodji · Gaziantep
90'🟨Paweł Olkowski · Gaziantep
90'🟨Júnior Morais · Gaziantep
coach days10.0071.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d5.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.13
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.802.00
corners against avg (last 5)7.203.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.405.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.672.56
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.16
dominance (last 5)0.460.47
elo1558.711483.25
elo momentum (last 5)-23.94-18.66
eye test v1-0.150.02
eye trend v10.00-0.25
first sub minute (last 10)60.6050.60
form points (last 5)4.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.402.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.841.84
h2 goals (last 10)1.001.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
keeper form v10.710.69
league points65.0050.00
league rank9.0014.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win2.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.8081.40
possession avg (last 5)52.4048.40
rest days3.003.00
scorer concentration0.290.14
season ppg1.481.16
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.20-2.00
shots for avg (last 5)10.8012.40
skill v10.640.34
sot against avg (last 5)4.006.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.303.80
sot for avg (last 3)3.003.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.804.20
squad age29.8029.30
state index-0.37-0.40
sterile dominance v10.640.01
threat rate (last 10)0.230.25
threat rate (last 3)0.210.20
threat rate (last 5)0.210.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.80