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Ankaragücü 1–2 Fenerbahce

← Süper Lig 2020 · Sat, May 8, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Fırat Aydınus, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce win60%1.63
Draw22%4.51
Ankaragücü win18%5.25

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ankaragücü +152%1.86
Fenerbahce +148%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over65%1.48
Under35%2.77

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'⚽Alper Potuk · Ankaragücü
42'⚽Ozan Tufan · Fenerbahce
83'🟨Tiago Pinto · Ankaragücü
85'🟨Zvonimir Šarlija · Ankaragücü
90'⚽Enner Valencia · Fenerbahce

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
15Shots19
5On target7
5Corners12
17Fouls10
2Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAnkaragücüFenerbahce
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.38
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
box share (last 5)0.710.60
cards avg (last 5)2.801.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEryaman Stadyumu
coach days96.0037.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d5.006.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.11
corner diff avg (last 5)0.603.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.003.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.606.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.002.63
defensive leak (last 5)0.190.10
dominance (last 5)0.540.61
elo1469.101706.94
elo momentum (last 5)-36.5117.13
eye test v1-0.451.56
eye trend v1-0.560.14
first sub minute (last 10)55.5058.30
form points (last 5)1.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.801.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.802.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.571.10
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.40
keeper form v10.640.77
league points44.0089.00
league rank17.002.00
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet8.001.00
matches since win6.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.4084.00
possession avg (last 5)44.0054.80
rest days5.195.00
scorer concentration0.270.14
season ppg1.052.07
shot diff avg (last 5)2.007.40
shots for avg (last 5)10.8018.80
skill v1-0.501.00
sot against avg (last 5)3.403.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.506.00
sot for avg (last 3)2.337.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.207.60
squad age28.1529.10
state index-0.710.80
sterile dominance v1-0.37-0.17
threat rate (last 10)0.270.31
threat rate (last 3)0.250.36
threat rate (last 5)0.250.34
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.80