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Sivasspor 1–0 Yeni Malatyaspor

← Süper Lig 2020 · Thu, Apr 29, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Alper Ulusoy, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sivasspor win49%2.00
Draw28%3.40
Yeni Malatyaspor win23%4.30

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Yeni Malatyaspor −0.551%1.91
Sivasspor −0.549%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under56%1.71
Over44%2.22

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

28'🟨Teenage Hadebe · Yeni Malatyaspor
57'🟨Olarenwaju Kayode · Sivasspor
66'🟨Issam Chebake · Yeni Malatyaspor
87'🟨Karim Hafez · Yeni Malatyaspor
88'⚽Jorge Félix · Sivasspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
21Shots7
5On target2
8Corners2
11Fouls10
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSivassporYeni Malatyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.220.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.28
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)0.690.65
cards avg (last 5)1.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueYeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu
1.60
coach days698.0087.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d4.006.00
conversion (last 5)0.190.13
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.004.20
corners for avg (last 5)2.804.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.061.45
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.05
dominance (last 5)0.520.36
elo1615.741469.59
elo momentum (last 5)28.4517.95
eye test v10.17-1.19
eye trend v1-0.390.10
first sub minute (last 10)65.7056.70
form points (last 5)11.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.000.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.40
goals for avg (last 5)2.200.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.660.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.10
keeper form v10.750.76
league points54.0045.00
league rank11.0016.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.2074.40
possession avg (last 5)43.4039.60
rest days4.814.10
scorer concentration0.240.16
season ppg1.381.13
shot diff avg (last 5)1.20-5.00
shots for avg (last 5)10.607.20
skill v1-0.28-0.88
sot against avg (last 5)4.603.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.202.80
sot for avg (last 3)3.333.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.802.20
squad age30.6728.11
state index0.53-0.33
sterile dominance v1-0.29-0.21
threat rate (last 10)0.260.21
threat rate (last 3)0.250.17
threat rate (last 5)0.240.19
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.40