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Goztep 1–1 Trabzonspor

← Süper Lig 2020 · Wed, Apr 28, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Tugay Kaan Numanoglu, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Trabzonspor win47%2.11
Goztep win27%3.75
Draw27%3.75

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Trabzonspor +0.2553%1.84
Goztep +0.2547%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over54%1.79
Under46%2.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'🟨Anthony Nwakaeme · Trabzonspor
40'🟨Kerim Alıcı · Goztep
41'🟨Fousseni Diabaté · Goztep
45'⚽Adis Jahović · Goztep
50'🟨Atınç Nukan · Goztep
67'🟥Berat Ayberk Özdemir · Trabzonspor
72'🟨Obinna Nwobodo · Goztep
88'⚽Caleb Ekuban · Trabzonspor
90'🟨Obinna Nwobodo · Goztep
90'🟥Obinna Nwobodo · Goztep
90'🟨Marlon

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
14Shots14
3On target7
7Corners2
10Fouls14
5Yellow cards2
1Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGoztepTrabzonspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.42
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.41
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.680.55
cards avg (last 5)1.602.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueGöztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı
· Trabzonspor
coach days117.00178.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.160.08
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.20-0.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.205.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.005.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.182.31
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.07
dominance (last 5)0.450.56
elo1518.401663.69
elo momentum (last 5)8.239.98
eye test v1-0.391.10
eye trend v10.32-0.07
first sub minute (last 10)54.9063.20
form points (last 5)7.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.800.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.071.20
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.30
keeper form v1—0.79
league points55.0070.00
league rank10.004.00
matches since blank7.004.00
matches since clean sheet4.000.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.0084.00
possession avg (last 5)46.6053.40
rest days8.004.00
scorer concentration0.220.18
season ppg1.341.67
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.004.40
shots for avg (last 5)10.2015.80
skill v10.090.91
sot against avg (last 5)4.203.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.305.40
sot for avg (last 3)3.674.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.406.40
squad age27.2926.16
state index-0.210.45
sterile dominance v10.110.09
threat rate (last 10)0.210.27
threat rate (last 3)0.270.27
threat rate (last 5)0.220.30
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.00