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Ankaragücü 1–0 Antalyaspor

← Süper Lig 2020 · Sun, Apr 4, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Ali Palabıyık, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ankaragücü win35%2.76
Antalyaspor win34%2.85
Draw30%3.19

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ankaragücü +051%1.92
Antalyaspor +049%1.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under57%1.70
Over43%2.25

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

21'🟨Michał Pazdan · Ankaragücü
30'🟨Hakan Özmert · Antalyaspor
53'🟨Endri Çekiçi · Ankaragücü
55'🟨Bünyamin Balcı · Antalyaspor
61'🟨Nuri Şahin · Antalyaspor
68'🟨Veysel Sarı · Antalyaspor
82'⚽Torgeir Borven · Ankaragücü

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
9Shots13
3On target3
3Corners9
10Fouls13
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAnkaragücüAntalyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.440.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.620.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.510.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.20
box share (last 5)0.640.53
cards avg (last 5)2.002.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEryaman Stadyumu
coach days62.00154.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.190.12
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.00-3.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.005.40
corners for avg (last 5)2.002.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.632.07
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.11
dominance (last 5)0.420.38
elo1478.881536.62
elo momentum (last 5)57.95-3.54
eye test v10.17-1.01
eye trend v10.580.44
first sub minute (last 10)51.8062.40
form points (last 5)12.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.60-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.920.92
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.35
keeper form v10.670.65
league points35.0043.00
league rank17.0013.00
matches since blank7.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.005.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.4081.40
possession avg (last 5)38.2043.40
rest days14.8814.10
scorer concentration0.290.21
season ppg1.061.23
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.60-3.80
shots for avg (last 5)9.406.40
skill v1-1.160.01
sot against avg (last 5)4.803.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.502.40
sot for avg (last 3)6.333.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.802.40
squad age28.3930.70
state index0.40-0.12
sterile dominance v1-0.790.60
threat rate (last 10)0.220.17
threat rate (last 3)0.270.17
threat rate (last 5)0.240.15
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.20