⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Genclerbirligi 0–1 Antalyaspor

← Süper Lig 2020 · Sun, Jan 31, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Bahattin Simsek, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Antalyaspor win37%2.69
Genclerbirligi win34%2.80
Draw29%3.37

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Antalyaspor +051%1.92
Genclerbirligi +049%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under54%1.82
Over46%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

68'🟨Dever Orgill · Antalyaspor
80'🟨Soner Dikmen · Genclerbirligi
87'⚽Sidney Sam · Antalyaspor
90'🟨Rahmetullah Berisbek · Genclerbirligi

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
7Shots10
2On target3
3Corners4
15Fouls14
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGenclerbirligiAntalyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.240.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.540.45
cards avg (last 5)2.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEryaman Stadyumu
2.60
coach days91.0091.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.12
corner diff avg (last 5)0.40-1.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.005.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.404.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.012.55
defensive leak (last 5)0.240.03
dominance (last 5)0.460.39
elo1407.711534.86
elo momentum (last 5)-44.2033.23
eye test v1-0.29-0.95
eye trend v1-0.39-0.27
first sub minute (last 10)53.4052.20
form points (last 5)0.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-3.800.60
goals against avg (last 5)4.200.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.101.03
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.30
keeper form v10.530.68
league points19.0028.00
league rank23.0013.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet10.000.00
matches since win5.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.2074.40
possession avg (last 5)47.2037.00
rest days8.007.10
scorer concentration0.270.16
season ppg0.831.22
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.40-4.60
shots for avg (last 5)12.207.00
skill v10.15-1.07
sot against avg (last 5)6.603.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.103.80
sot for avg (last 3)2.332.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.402.60
squad age27.8930.10
state index-1.490.23
sterile dominance v1-0.07-0.41
threat rate (last 10)0.260.21
threat rate (last 3)0.250.18
threat rate (last 5)0.250.20
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.20