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Alanyaspor 4–3 Ankaragücü

← Süper Lig 2020 · Mon, Jan 25, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: Cuneyt Cakir, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Alanyaspor win65%1.47
Draw21%4.73
Ankaragücü win14%7.17

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ankaragücü −1.2552%1.86
Alanyaspor −1.2548%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over59%1.61
Under41%2.40

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'⚽Joseph Paintsil · Ankaragücü
28'⚽Joseph Paintsil · Ankaragücü
35'🟨İbrahim Akdağ · Ankaragücü
37'⚽Salih Uçan · Alanyaspor
39'🟨Joseph Paintsil · Ankaragücü
54'⚽Anastasios Bakasetas · Alanyaspor
62'⚽Khouma Babacar · Alanyaspor
65'⚽Aliou Badji · Ankaragücü
69'🟨Khouma Babacar · Alanyaspor
79'⚽François Moubandje · Alanyaspor
84'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
24Shots9
7On target5
13Corners4
12Fouls17
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlanyasporAnkaragücü
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.26
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.480.53
cards avg (last 5)2.401.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu
Emre Güral
· Ankaragücü
coach days604.00146.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d4.006.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.11
corner diff avg (last 5)4.60-2.00
corners against avg (last 5)2.604.80
corners for avg (last 5)7.202.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.631.95
defensive leak (last 5)0.260.11
dominance (last 5)0.650.44
elo1630.851453.32
elo momentum (last 5)-29.452.97
eye test v10.86-0.24
eye trend v1-0.07-0.01
first sub minute (last 10)56.1056.10
form points (last 5)4.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.970.88
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.20
keeper form v10.690.63
league points37.0021.00
league rank7.0021.00
matches since blank8.005.00
matches since clean sheet4.000.00
matches since win4.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)86.0073.40
possession avg (last 5)68.2046.40
rest days4.134.00
scorer concentration0.270.22
season ppg1.680.95
shot diff avg (last 5)7.20-2.80
shots for avg (last 5)15.4011.40
skill v12.08-0.55
sot against avg (last 5)3.005.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.703.80
sot for avg (last 3)6.003.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.803.80
squad age28.3527.11
state index-0.07-0.46
sterile dominance v11.55-0.36
threat rate (last 10)0.250.25
threat rate (last 3)0.230.30
threat rate (last 5)0.220.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.80