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Fenerbahce 3–0 Kayserispor

← Süper Lig 2020 · Mon, Jan 25, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: Alper Ulusoy, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce win69%1.40
Draw19%5.25
Kayserispor win12%8.00

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce −1.2551%1.92
Kayserispor −1.2549%1.97

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over57%1.67
Under43%2.27

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

18'🟨Enner Valencia · Fenerbahce
20'⚽Mame Thiam · Fenerbahce
51'⚽Mbwana Samatta · Fenerbahce
63'🟨Nurettin Korkmaz · Kayserispor
69'🟨Dimitrios Pelkas · Fenerbahce
86'⚽Papiss Demba Cissé · Fenerbahce

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
21Shots6
11On target1
6Corners5
12Fouls9
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFenerbahceKayserispor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.570.44
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.510.40
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.750.60
cards avg (last 5)1.802.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueÜlker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi
coach days177.0024.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d6.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.200.10
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.60-1.00
corners against avg (last 5)6.605.00
corners for avg (last 5)3.004.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.712.00
defensive leak (last 5)0.050.06
dominance (last 5)0.480.39
elo1677.551474.74
elo momentum (last 5)50.2159.14
eye test v10.87-0.27
eye trend v10.250.16
first sub minute (last 10)52.0062.70
form points (last 5)13.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.801.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.600.40
goals for avg (last 5)2.401.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.350.82
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.30
keeper form v10.780.80
league points46.0026.00
league rank2.0015.00
matches since blank9.005.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.0073.00
possession avg (last 5)49.6038.40
rest days4.006.13
scorer concentration0.130.20
season ppg2.091.18
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.60-4.80
shots for avg (last 5)12.209.40
skill v10.19-1.12
sot against avg (last 5)3.804.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.104.00
sot for avg (last 3)6.674.67
sot for avg (last 5)6.003.80
squad age28.2428.16
state index1.020.20
sterile dominance v1-0.04-0.87
threat rate (last 10)0.270.27
threat rate (last 3)0.210.28
threat rate (last 5)0.260.26
venue ppg (last 5)2.400.80