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Gaziantep 1–1 Hatayspor

← Süper Lig 2020 · Sun, Jan 24, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: Fırat Aydınus, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gaziantep win38%2.48
Hatayspor win33%2.98
Draw29%3.41

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gaziantep +054%1.78
Hatayspor +046%2.13

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over52%1.85
Under48%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

-5'🟨Jefferson · Gaziantep
18'🟨Abdurrahman Canli · Hatayspor
23'🟨Alexandru Maxim · Gaziantep
30'⚽Jefferson · Gaziantep
33'🟨Muhammet Demir · Gaziantep
90'🟨Yusuf Abdioğlu · Hatayspor
90'⚽ (og)Júnior Morais · Hatayspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
7Shots12
2On target3
2Corners5
18Fouls10
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGaziantepHatayspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.430.43
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.220.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.38
blown lead rate (last 20)0.15—
box share (last 5)0.620.60
cards avg (last 5)2.603.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueGaziantep Stadyumu
coach days846.00176.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.00—
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.16
corner diff avg (last 5)2.00-3.80
corners against avg (last 5)3.806.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.802.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.071.49
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.09
dominance (last 5)0.560.40
elo1609.031554.57
elo momentum (last 5)-28.73-10.19
eye test v1-0.12-0.19
eye trend v1-0.59-0.11
first sub minute (last 10)56.3063.90
form points (last 5)7.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.321.75
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.50—
keeper form v10.780.72
league points40.0037.00
league rank3.008.00
matches since blank0.006.00
matches since clean sheet3.001.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.2075.60
possession avg (last 5)51.4046.80
rest days4.134.13
scorer concentration0.230.54
season ppg1.821.68
shot diff avg (last 5)1.60-5.40
shots for avg (last 5)12.0010.40
skill v10.14-0.32
sot against avg (last 5)4.204.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.104.60
sot for avg (last 3)2.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.204.00
squad age29.7829.36
state index0.14-0.09
sterile dominance v10.17-0.08
threat rate (last 10)0.230.23
threat rate (last 3)0.210.25
threat rate (last 5)0.240.23
venue ppg (last 5)2.601.80