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Genclerbirligi 1–3 Karagumruk

← Süper Lig 2020 · Fri, Jan 15, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: Ali Sansalan, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Karagumruk win42%2.32
Genclerbirligi win31%3.11
Draw27%3.60

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Genclerbirligi +0.2552%1.88
Karagumruk +0.2548%2.01

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over54%1.78
Under46%2.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

22'⚽ (pen)Lucas Biglia · Karagumruk
26'🟨Giovanni Sio · Genclerbirligi
36'⚽Alassane Ndao · Karagumruk
45'🟨Jure Balkovec · Karagumruk
54'🟨Arda Kızıldağ · Genclerbirligi
68'🟨Sefa Yılmaz · Genclerbirligi
74'⚽ (pen)Piris da Motta · Genclerbirligi
80'🟨Daniel Candeias · Genclerbirligi
88'⚽Artur Sobiech · Karagumruk
89'🟨Zargo Touré · Genclerbirligi
89'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
17Shots14
3On target7
8Corners3
21Fouls8
5Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGenclerbirligiKaragumruk
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.05—
box share (last 5)0.610.61
cards avg (last 5)3.003.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEryaman Stadyumu
Fatih Kurucuk
· Karagumruk
90'🟨Vato Arveladze · Karagumruk
coach days75.00441.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.00—
congestion 21d5.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.15
corner diff avg (last 5)0.20-1.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.006.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.204.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.711.57
defensive leak (last 5)0.180.14
dominance (last 5)0.470.49
elo1439.181545.11
elo momentum (last 5)17.15-4.01
eye test v10.50-0.17
eye trend v10.19-0.09
first sub minute (last 10)51.3062.60
form points (last 5)7.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.80-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)3.201.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.140.67
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.20—
keeper form v1—0.63
league points19.0031.00
league rank21.008.00
matches since blank0.008.00
matches since clean sheet7.008.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.2076.80
possession avg (last 5)47.8049.80
rest days6.005.23
scorer concentration0.270.17
season ppg0.951.55
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.200.20
shots for avg (last 5)13.4011.80
skill v1-0.01-0.01
sot against avg (last 5)6.202.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.903.80
sot for avg (last 3)5.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.203.80
squad age27.9529.63
state index-0.52-0.18
sterile dominance v1-0.400.09
threat rate (last 10)0.280.24
threat rate (last 3)0.340.21
threat rate (last 5)0.290.23
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.60