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Ankaragücü 3–1 Yeni Malatyaspor

← Süper Lig 2020 · Sat, Jan 2, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Volkan Bayarslan, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ankaragücü win40%2.44
Yeni Malatyaspor win31%3.14
Draw30%3.29

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ankaragücü +056%1.71
Yeni Malatyaspor +044%2.22

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under54%1.78
Over46%2.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'⚽Daniel Łukasik · Ankaragücü
14'🟨Olcay Şahan · Yeni Malatyaspor
19'🟨Stelios Kitsiou · Ankaragücü
37'⚽ (pen)Joseph Paintsil · Ankaragücü
76'⚽Youssouf Ndayishimiye · Yeni Malatyaspor
79'🟨Ricardo Friedrich · Ankaragücü
81'🟨Daniel Łukasik · Ankaragücü
81'🟨Semih Kaya · Yeni Malatyaspor
83'🟥Karim Hafez · Yeni Malatyaspor
88'⚽Torgeir Borven · Ankaragücü

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
9Shots16
5On target2
4Corners7
14Fouls15
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAnkaragücüYeni Malatyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.41
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.680.67
cards avg (last 5)2.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEryaman Stadyumu
2.00
coach days123.00154.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d5.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.170.14
corner diff avg (last 5)0.00-2.00
corners against avg (last 5)3.604.80
corners for avg (last 5)3.602.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.212.25
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.09
dominance (last 5)0.540.49
elo1441.091509.62
elo momentum (last 5)39.5838.34
eye test v1-0.330.37
eye trend v1-0.150.17
first sub minute (last 10)55.3060.40
form points (last 5)10.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.601.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.320.85
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.20
keeper form v10.560.75
league points12.0024.00
league rank24.009.00
matches since blank1.009.00
matches since clean sheet3.002.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.4072.00
possession avg (last 5)40.4041.20
rest days6.006.00
scorer concentration0.290.17
season ppg0.801.50
shot diff avg (last 5)1.80-0.60
shots for avg (last 5)10.8012.40
skill v1-0.95-1.03
sot against avg (last 5)3.405.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.804.50
sot for avg (last 3)3.005.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.805.00
squad age26.1728.23
state index0.110.22
sterile dominance v1-0.76-1.23
threat rate (last 10)0.250.28
threat rate (last 3)0.250.36
threat rate (last 5)0.260.32
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.20