← Süper Lig 2020 · Tue, Dec 29, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: Ramazan Keles, Turkey
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Antalyaspor win | 35% | 2.74 |
| Hatayspor win | 34% | 2.84 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.17 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Antalyaspor +0 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Hatayspor +0 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.69 |
| Over | 42% | 2.25 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 5 |
| 8 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 9 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 16 | Fouls | 21 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand