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Antalyaspor 0–6 Hatayspor

← Süper Lig 2020 · Tue, Dec 29, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: Ramazan Keles, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Antalyaspor win35%2.74
Hatayspor win34%2.84
Draw31%3.17

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Antalyaspor +051%1.91
Hatayspor +049%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under58%1.69
Over42%2.25

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'🟨Hakan Özmert · Antalyaspor
8'⚽Aaron-Salem Boupendza · Hatayspor
16'⚽Aaron-Salem Boupendza · Hatayspor
21'⚽Aaron-Salem Boupendza · Hatayspor
26'🟨Dever Orgill · Antalyaspor
35'⚽Babajide David Akintola · Hatayspor
38'🟨Fredy · Antalyaspor
45'⚽Aaron-Salem Boupendza · Hatayspor
52'🟨Naldo · Antalyaspor
53'🟨Alexandros Katranis · Hatayspor
61'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score5
8Shots13
4On target9
2Corners5
16Fouls21
6Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAntalyasporHatayspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.450.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.480.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.470.48
blown lead rate (last 20)0.10—
box share (last 5)0.620.67
cards avg (last 5)2.602.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAntalya Stadyumu
Adama Traoré
· Hatayspor
62'🟨Fedor Kudryashov · Antalyaspor
69'🟨Nuri Şahin · Antalyaspor
74'🟨Mesut Çaytemel · Hatayspor
90'⚽Mirkan Aydın · Hatayspor
coach days58.00150.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.00—
congestion 21d3.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.16
corner diff avg (last 5)2.60-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.003.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.603.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.781.89
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.08
dominance (last 5)0.580.51
elo1518.521541.23
elo momentum (last 5)7.204.50
eye test v10.540.38
eye trend v10.22-0.05
first sub minute (last 10)56.2059.20
form points (last 5)8.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.791.20
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.30—
keeper form v10.700.70
league points18.0027.00
league rank16.008.00
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.4077.60
possession avg (last 5)50.4050.40
rest days5.007.13
scorer concentration0.200.25
season ppg1.131.69
shot diff avg (last 5)2.800.80
shots for avg (last 5)11.4011.40
skill v10.370.11
sot against avg (last 5)3.003.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.104.20
sot for avg (last 3)5.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.405.00
squad age31.1628.24
state index0.200.08
sterile dominance v10.300.22
threat rate (last 10)0.200.23
threat rate (last 3)0.220.24
threat rate (last 5)0.230.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.20