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Kayserispor 1–2 Konyaspor

← Süper Lig 2020 · Thu, Dec 24, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Ali Palabıyık, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kayserispor win35%2.76
Konyaspor win35%2.78
Draw30%3.22

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kayserispor +050%1.93
Konyaspor +050%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under58%1.64
Over42%2.33

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

19'🟨Ahmet Yılmaz Çalık · Konyaspor
45'🟨Marko Jevtović · Konyaspor
45'⚽ (pen)Pedro Henrique · Kayserispor
51'🟨Pedro Henrique · Kayserispor
54'🟨Aaron Lennon · Kayserispor
64'🟨Aaron Lennon · Kayserispor
64'🟥Aaron Lennon · Kayserispor
75'🟨Zoran Kvržić · Kayserispor
89'⚽ (pen)Uğur Demirok · Konyaspor
90'🟨Aziz Behich · Kayserispor
90'⚽

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
10Shots16
4On target8
6Corners1
16Fouls16
5Yellow cards2
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKayserisporKonyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.40
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.20
box share (last 5)0.560.69
cards avg (last 5)1.802.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueKadir Has Şehir Stadı
Marko Jevtović
· Konyaspor
coach days53.00784.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.13
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.00-1.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.604.80
corners for avg (last 5)3.603.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.321.32
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.13
dominance (last 5)0.480.46
elo1439.961530.75
elo momentum (last 5)5.13-12.22
eye test v1-0.260.10
eye trend v10.46-0.35
first sub minute (last 10)55.0050.80
form points (last 5)4.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.531.06
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.35
keeper form v1—0.70
league points14.0018.00
league rank20.0015.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win9.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.8084.00
possession avg (last 5)41.2056.20
rest days2.882.88
scorer concentration0.200.33
season ppg1.001.29
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.40-0.80
shots for avg (last 5)11.2010.60
skill v1-0.391.10
sot against avg (last 5)5.204.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.304.90
sot for avg (last 3)4.333.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.604.40
squad age28.8827.93
state index-0.70-0.27
sterile dominance v1-0.501.11
threat rate (last 10)0.250.21
threat rate (last 3)0.290.15
threat rate (last 5)0.260.18
venue ppg (last 5)0.400.80