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Gaziantep 3–1 Fenerbahce

← Süper Lig 2020 · Sat, Dec 19, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: Cuneyt Cakir, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce win50%1.97
Gaziantep win25%3.80
Draw25%3.90

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gaziantep +0.550%1.93
Fenerbahce +0.550%1.97

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over61%1.57
Under39%2.47

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

10'⚽Amedej Vetrih · Gaziantep
24'⚽Dimitrios Pelkas · Fenerbahce
38'🟨Nazım Sangaré · Fenerbahce
40'⚽ (pen)Alexandru Maxim · Gaziantep
53'🟨Papy Djilobodji · Gaziantep
59'🟨Dimitrios Pelkas · Fenerbahce
67'🟨Amedej Vetrih · Gaziantep
81'🟨André Sousa · Gaziantep
90'🟨Kemal Ademi · Fenerbahce
90'⚽Kenan Özer · Gaziantep

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
10Shots14
4On target4
7Corners4
12Fouls15
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGaziantepFenerbahce
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.500.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.540.26
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.610.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.00
box share (last 5)0.670.61
cards avg (last 5)2.603.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueGaziantep Stadyumu
coach days810.00140.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.220.17
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.803.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.604.60
corners for avg (last 5)3.807.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.893.57
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.23
dominance (last 5)0.400.55
elo1572.411605.56
elo momentum (last 5)52.51-39.87
eye test v10.43-0.02
eye trend v1-0.25-0.24
first sub minute (last 10)49.1053.90
form points (last 5)13.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.000.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.002.00
goals for avg (last 5)2.002.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.701.63
h2 goals (last 10)1.001.20
h2h win rate (last 5)0.100.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.30
keeper form v10.730.74
league points21.0024.00
league rank9.005.00
matches since blank20.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.001.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.4080.40
possession avg (last 5)37.8053.00
rest days6.007.00
scorer concentration0.290.19
season ppg1.621.85
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.602.60
shots for avg (last 5)8.8014.20
skill v1-1.220.55
sot against avg (last 5)4.605.40
sot for avg (last 10)5.004.90
sot for avg (last 3)4.334.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.204.00
squad age30.3529.18
state index0.640.04
sterile dominance v1-0.760.19
threat rate (last 10)0.250.30
threat rate (last 3)0.230.28
threat rate (last 5)0.240.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.802.60