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Ankaragücü 2–0 Hatayspor

← Süper Lig 2020 · Tue, Dec 15, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Huseyin Gocek, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hatayspor win36%2.65
Ankaragücü win34%2.80
Draw29%3.35

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hatayspor +052%1.89
Ankaragücü +048%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under52%1.85
Over48%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'🟨Mame Biram Diouf · Hatayspor
35'🟨Tiago Pinto · Ankaragücü
50'🟥Gökhan Karadeniz · Hatayspor
54'🟨Ender Aygören · Ankaragücü
69'⚽Zvonimir Šarlija · Ankaragücü
85'🟨Aaron-Salem Boupendza · Hatayspor
86'🟨Zvonimir Šarlija · Ankaragücü
89'⚽Joseph Paintsil · Ankaragücü
90'🟨Rúben Ribeiro · Hatayspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
11Shots9
5On target4
3Corners4
5Fouls10
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAnkaragücüHatayspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.51
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.47
blown lead rate (last 20)0.10—
box share (last 5)0.620.67
cards avg (last 5)3.401.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEryaman Stadyumu
coach days105.00136.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.05—
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.18
corner diff avg (last 5)1.80-1.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.205.60
corners for avg (last 5)6.003.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.391.99
defensive leak (last 5)0.200.12
dominance (last 5)0.530.51
elo1414.141558.90
elo momentum (last 5)-7.192.15
eye test v10.190.49
eye trend v1-0.060.35
first sub minute (last 10)54.9060.00
form points (last 5)4.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.491.14
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.15—
keeper form v10.570.76
league points5.0024.00
league rank24.004.00
matches since blank1.002.00
matches since clean sheet9.001.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.6080.20
possession avg (last 5)46.0047.20
rest days2.883.10
scorer concentration0.330.25
season ppg0.451.85
shot diff avg (last 5)1.200.40
shots for avg (last 5)12.0011.60
skill v1-0.180.14
sot against avg (last 5)3.403.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.003.90
sot for avg (last 3)3.674.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.605.20
squad age26.5928.84
state index-0.52-0.04
sterile dominance v1-0.340.00
threat rate (last 10)0.230.21
threat rate (last 3)0.230.23
threat rate (last 5)0.270.24
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.80