⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Denizlispor 0–2 Fenerbahce

← Süper Lig 2020 · Sun, Dec 6, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: Ali Palabıyık, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce win59%1.64
Draw23%4.33
Denizlispor win19%5.27

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Denizlispor +154%1.81
Fenerbahce +146%2.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over58%1.66
Under42%2.30

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'⚽Papiss Demba Cissé · Fenerbahce
22'🟨Zakarya Bergdich · Denizlispor
32'🟨Marvin Bakalorz · Denizlispor
40'⚽Gökhan Gönül · Fenerbahce
53'🟨Serdar Aziz · Fenerbahce
54'🟨Serdar Aziz · Fenerbahce
54'🟥Serdar Aziz · Fenerbahce
55'🟨Ozan Tufan · Fenerbahce
86'🟨Hugo Rodallega · Denizlispor
86'🟨Caner Erkin · Fenerbahce

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
18Shots10
7On target2
11Corners4
17Fouls11
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricDenizlisporFenerbahce
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.540.62
cards avg (last 5)1.403.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueDenizli Atatürk Stadyumu
coach days35.00127.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.18
corner diff avg (last 5)0.607.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.402.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.009.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.083.71
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.22
dominance (last 5)0.550.64
elo1421.021623.76
elo momentum (last 5)-10.34-0.26
eye test v10.500.79
eye trend v10.26-0.41
first sub minute (last 10)57.0053.50
form points (last 5)2.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.800.80
goals against avg (last 5)2.401.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.602.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.291.75
h2 goals (last 10)0.601.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.100.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.25
keeper form v1—0.70
league points7.0021.00
league rank23.005.00
matches since blank2.002.00
matches since clean sheet6.007.00
matches since win5.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.0082.20
possession avg (last 5)53.8053.60
rest days8.137.00
scorer concentration0.290.21
season ppg0.701.91
shot diff avg (last 5)3.208.40
shots for avg (last 5)15.8017.80
skill v10.560.76
sot against avg (last 5)5.004.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.705.30
sot for avg (last 3)4.674.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.005.60
squad age29.9028.97
state index-0.730.56
sterile dominance v10.20-0.19
threat rate (last 10)0.230.30
threat rate (last 3)0.250.26
threat rate (last 5)0.260.33
venue ppg (last 5)0.402.20