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Sivasspor 0–1 Goztep

← Süper Lig 2020 · Mon, Nov 30, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Serkan Tokat, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sivasspor win46%2.10
Draw27%3.54
Goztep win27%3.68

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sivasspor −0.2554%1.80
Goztep −0.2546%2.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under50%1.96
Over50%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

46'🟨Halil Akbunar · Goztep
57'🟨Yalçın Kayan · Goztep
59'🟨Isaac Cofie · Sivasspor
80'⚽Halil Akbunar · Goztep
88'🟨Cherif Ndiaye · Goztep

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
7Shots6
5On target1
6Corners3
11Fouls13
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSivassporGoztep
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.420.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.510.21
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.500.31
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.530.70
cards avg (last 5)1.601.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueYeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu
coach days548.00668.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.13
corner diff avg (last 5)3.00-1.80
corners against avg (last 5)3.207.20
corners for avg (last 5)6.205.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.641.58
defensive leak (last 5)0.200.06
dominance (last 5)0.520.28
elo1566.921502.20
elo momentum (last 5)4.708.39
eye test v10.31-1.13
eye trend v10.05-0.10
first sub minute (last 10)56.8053.70
form points (last 5)7.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.071.65
h2 goals (last 10)0.701.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.25
keeper form v1—0.73
league points9.0013.00
league rank20.0014.00
matches since blank7.002.00
matches since clean sheet4.002.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.6077.00
possession avg (last 5)41.0045.00
rest days3.948.15
scorer concentration0.290.25
season ppg1.001.30
shot diff avg (last 5)0.00-10.00
shots for avg (last 5)10.606.80
skill v1-0.42-0.31
sot against avg (last 5)3.605.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.502.80
sot for avg (last 3)5.002.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.802.40
squad age31.5127.24
state index0.05-0.13
sterile dominance v1-0.390.50
threat rate (last 10)0.260.17
threat rate (last 3)0.230.17
threat rate (last 5)0.240.15
venue ppg (last 5)0.601.00