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Ankaragücü 0–1 Trabzonspor

← Süper Lig 2020 · Fri, Nov 27, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Mustafa Ogretmenoglu, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Trabzonspor win47%2.05
Draw27%3.61
Ankaragücü win26%3.73

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ankaragücü +0.553%1.85
Trabzonspor +0.547%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over53%1.81
Under47%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'🟨Zvonimir Šarlija · Ankaragücü
21'🟨Stelios Kitsiou · Ankaragücü
45'⚽Lewis Baker · Trabzonspor
71'🟨João Pereira · Trabzonspor
82'🟨Uğurcan Çakır · Trabzonspor
90'🟨Djaniny · Trabzonspor
90'🟨João Pereira · Trabzonspor
90'🟥João Pereira · Trabzonspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
14Shots8
3On target1
5Corners5
11Fouls13
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAnkaragücüTrabzonspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.47
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.44
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.44
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.30
box share (last 5)0.680.60
cards avg (last 5)3.001.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEryaman Stadyumu
coach days87.0026.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.11
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.20-4.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.207.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.003.60
corners volatility (last 10)3.212.12
defensive leak (last 5)0.190.12
dominance (last 5)0.470.40
elo1413.541603.67
elo momentum (last 5)-25.73-31.44
eye test v1-0.090.22
eye trend v1-0.07-0.15
first sub minute (last 10)56.3057.30
form points (last 5)1.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.20-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)2.402.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.031.25
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.55
keeper form v1—0.67
league points2.009.00
league rank24.0020.00
matches since blank2.005.00
matches since clean sheet6.000.00
matches since win8.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.8080.20
possession avg (last 5)41.8045.20
rest days5.155.02
scorer concentration0.330.30
season ppg0.250.82
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.40-6.00
shots for avg (last 5)11.6010.80
skill v1-1.020.01
sot against avg (last 5)4.606.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.204.60
sot for avg (last 3)4.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.404.60
squad age26.6327.09
state index-1.06-0.21
sterile dominance v1-0.87-0.08
threat rate (last 10)0.260.22
threat rate (last 3)0.280.24
threat rate (last 5)0.280.24
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.20