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Karagumruk 1–1 Sivasspor

← Süper Lig 2020 · Sat, Nov 21, 10:30 AM UTC · ref: Huseyin Gocek, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Karagumruk win39%2.52
Sivasspor win34%2.85
Draw28%3.49

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Karagumruk +053%1.83
Sivasspor +047%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over51%1.90
Under49%1.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

32'🟨Lucas Biglia · Karagumruk
44'⚽ (og)Eric Lichaj · Sivasspor
45'🟨Samba Camara · Sivasspor
78'🟨Alassane Ndao · Karagumruk
83'🟨Isaac Cofie · Sivasspor
85'🟨Mamadou Samassa · Sivasspor
86'⚽Erik Sabo · Karagumruk
90'🟨Erik Sabo · Karagumruk
90'🟨Eric Lichaj · Karagumruk

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
19Shots9
5On target3
5Corners5
15Fouls16
4Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKaragumrukSivasspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.410.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.53
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.40
blown lead rate (last 20)—0.00
box share (last 5)0.610.61
cards avg (last 5)2.001.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueRecep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu
coach days386.00539.00
comeback rate (last 20)—0.00
congestion 21d1.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.08
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.003.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.402.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.405.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.251.72
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.19
dominance (last 5)0.500.63
elo1544.931555.50
elo momentum (last 5)-0.93-17.12
eye test v10.20-0.13
eye trend v10.110.27
first sub minute (last 10)66.8857.80
form points (last 5)6.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.371.07
h2 goals (last 10)—0.70
ht lead rate (last 20)—0.25
keeper form v10.740.61
league points16.008.00
league rank4.0019.00
matches since blank2.005.00
matches since clean sheet6.002.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.8080.00
possession avg (last 5)49.6043.80
rest days13.0012.77
scorer concentration0.230.29
season ppg1.601.00
shot diff avg (last 5)0.004.20
shots for avg (last 5)13.2011.40
skill v10.46-0.10
sot against avg (last 5)5.603.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.384.30
sot for avg (last 3)5.335.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.403.80
squad age30.6531.02
state index0.27-0.08
sterile dominance v10.01-0.11
threat rate (last 10)0.250.25
threat rate (last 3)0.260.26
threat rate (last 5)0.270.23
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.40