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Hatayspor 1–1 Sivasspor

← Süper Lig 2020 · Mon, Nov 2, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Yasin Kol, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sivasspor win38%2.53
Hatayspor win32%3.03
Draw30%3.25

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sivasspor +055%1.78
Hatayspor +045%2.14

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under54%1.79
Over46%2.09

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'⚽Max Gradel · Sivasspor
8'⚽Babajide David Akintola · Hatayspor
34'🟨Mustapha Yatabaré · Sivasspor
55'🟨Pablo Santos · Hatayspor
62'🟨Erdoğan Yeşilyurt · Sivasspor
65'🟨Rúben Ribeiro · Hatayspor
82'🟨Rúben Ribeiro · Hatayspor
82'🟥Rúben Ribeiro · Hatayspor
90'🟨Isaac Sackey · Hatayspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
10Shots7
4On target4
2Corners2
14Fouls7
4Yellow cards2
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHataysporSivasspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)—0.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.260.34
blown lead rate (last 20)—0.00
box share (last 5)0.620.72
cards avg (last 5)2.801.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAntakya Atatürk Stadı
coach days93.00520.00
comeback rate (last 20)—0.00
congestion 21d0.004.00
conversion (last 5)—0.08
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.802.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.203.20
corners for avg (last 5)3.405.20
corners volatility (last 10)—1.49
defensive leak (last 5)—0.18
dominance (last 5)—0.64
elo1549.631560.82
elo momentum (last 5)27.97-34.63
eye test v1-1.20-0.02
eye trend v1—-0.31
first sub minute (last 10)62.0056.10
form points (last 5)10.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.202.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals volatility (last 10)—1.17
h2 goals (last 10)—0.60
ht lead rate (last 20)—0.25
keeper form v10.770.55
league points13.007.00
league rank6.0018.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.004.00
matches since win1.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.7577.40
possession avg (last 5)41.0046.40
rest days29.173.96
scorer concentration—0.20
season ppg2.171.40
shot diff avg (last 5)—4.40
shots for avg (last 5)—11.80
skill v1-0.41-0.18
sot against avg (last 5)6.004.40
sot for avg (last 10)—4.40
sot for avg (last 3)1.003.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.254.20
squad age30.1930.88
state index0.36-0.21
sterile dominance v10.14-0.34
threat rate (last 10)—0.30
threat rate (last 3)0.130.23
threat rate (last 5)0.180.27
venue ppg (last 5)—1.80