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Yeni Malatyaspor 1–0 Antalyaspor

← Süper Lig 2020 · Sat, Oct 3, 10:30 AM UTC · ref: Alper Ulusoy, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Antalyaspor win38%2.63
Yeni Malatyaspor win33%2.90
Draw29%3.38

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Antalyaspor +052%1.88
Yeni Malatyaspor +048%2.01

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under52%1.88
Over48%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

10'⚽Benjamin Tetteh · Yeni Malatyaspor
31'🟨Wallace · Yeni Malatyaspor
38'🟨Jody Lukoki · Yeni Malatyaspor
38'🟨Eren Albayrak · Antalyaspor
45'🟨Karim Hafez · Yeni Malatyaspor
67'🟨Fredy · Antalyaspor
85'🟨Abdulsamed Damlu · Yeni Malatyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
14Shots7
4On target1
7Corners3
19Fouls10
4Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricYeni MalatyasporAntalyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.45
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.52
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.53
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.640.58
cards avg (last 5)1.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueYeni Malatya Stadyumu
1.00
coach days63.00276.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.040.14
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.803.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.603.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.806.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.012.81
defensive leak (last 5)0.280.07
dominance (last 5)0.600.52
elo1425.971556.91
elo momentum (last 5)-41.8223.69
eye test v1-0.200.42
eye trend v10.14-0.01
first sub minute (last 10)54.2060.10
form points (last 5)1.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.800.60
goals against avg (last 5)2.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.820.79
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.30
keeper form v1—0.70
league points1.007.00
league rank19.007.00
matches since blank2.008.00
matches since clean sheet6.000.00
matches since win6.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.2078.80
possession avg (last 5)50.0045.80
rest days6.774.73
season ppg0.332.33
shot diff avg (last 5)4.20-0.20
shots for avg (last 5)13.009.80
skill v10.12-0.10
sot against avg (last 5)5.403.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.304.60
sot for avg (last 3)4.004.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.805.20
state index-1.090.47
sterile dominance v1-0.020.05
threat rate (last 10)0.250.24
threat rate (last 3)0.270.22
threat rate (last 5)0.260.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.80