β SΓΌper Lig 2020 Β· Sun, Sep 20, 04:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Alper Ulusoy, Turkey
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
βMarketβ = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β the world's best guess. βModelβ = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Gaziantep win | 47% | 2.04 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.44 |
| Karagumruk win | 25% | 3.96 |
across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Karagumruk β0.5 | 52% | 1.86 |
| Gaziantep β0.5 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 54% | 1.79 |
| Under | 46% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 15 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β tap to expand