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Antwerp 3–2 Genk

← Jupiler Pro League 2020 · Sat, Apr 17, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: L. D'hondt

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Genk win40%2.38
Antwerp win33%3.00
Draw27%3.65

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Antwerp +0.2553%1.83
Genk +0.2547%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over59%1.64
Under41%2.33

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

22'⚽Paul Onuachu · Genk
31'🟨Bryan Heynen · Genk
44'🟨Abdoulaye Seck · Antwerp
55'🟨Didier Lamkel Zé · Antwerp
64'⚽ (pen)Paul Onuachu · Genk
67'⚽Didier Lamkel Zé · Antwerp
89'🟨Dieumerci Mbokani · Antwerp
89'🟨Jhon Lucumí · Genk
90'⚽Dieumerci Mbokani · Antwerp
90'⚽Dylan Batubinsika · Antwerp

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
27Shots24
9On target9
9Corners4
11Fouls10
3Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAntwerpGenk
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.470.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.510.42
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.660.66
cards avg (last 5)1.200.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBosuilstadion
coach days106.00167.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.240.16
corner diff avg (last 5)-5.201.20
corners against avg (last 5)7.804.80
corners for avg (last 5)2.606.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.992.50
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.08
dominance (last 5)0.390.61
elo1653.491642.31
elo momentum (last 5)33.0741.04
eye test v10.281.29
eye trend v1-0.300.53
first sub minute (last 10)67.0058.50
form points (last 5)12.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.801.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)2.402.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.421.20
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.50
keeper form v10.650.63
league points69.0062.00
league rank3.005.00
matches since blank5.009.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.0085.60
possession avg (last 5)43.8054.80
rest days5.006.30
scorer concentration0.200.36
season ppg1.771.59
shot diff avg (last 5)-5.605.20
shots for avg (last 5)9.8016.40
skill v1-0.461.15
sot against avg (last 5)6.804.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.505.00
sot for avg (last 3)3.677.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.006.80
squad age28.0124.02
state index0.551.06
sterile dominance v1-0.160.23
threat rate (last 10)0.210.23
threat rate (last 3)0.200.34
threat rate (last 5)0.220.30
venue ppg (last 5)1.402.00