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Beerschot VA 1–2 Oostende

← Jupiler Pro League 2020 · Sun, Apr 11, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: N. Laforge

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Oostende win48%2.03
Beerschot VA win27%3.60
Draw26%3.92

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Beerschot VA +0.552%1.86
Oostende +0.548%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over55%1.76
Under45%2.12

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

23'⚽Loris Brogno · Beerschot VA
63'🟨Loris Brogno · Beerschot VA
81'⚽Marko Kvasina · Oostende
84'⚽Jelle Bataille · Oostende
88'🟨Jelle Bataille · Oostende
90'🟨Mamadou Thiam · Oostende

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
9Shots21
3On target7
1Corners11
10Fouls15
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBeerschot VAOostende
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.420.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.240.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.750.62
cards avg (last 5)1.401.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueOlympisch Stadion
coach days100.00284.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.10
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.190.06
corner diff avg (last 5)-4.200.20
corners against avg (last 5)6.604.60
corners for avg (last 5)2.404.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.422.67
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.08
dominance (last 5)0.420.57
elo1556.141494.60
elo momentum (last 5)14.61-25.19
eye test v1-0.67-0.38
eye trend v1-0.310.06
first sub minute (last 10)53.0065.00
form points (last 5)10.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.800.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.531.16
h2 goals (last 10)1.300.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.30
keeper form v10.670.73
league points62.0055.00
league rank6.009.00
matches since blank10.000.00
matches since clean sheet8.002.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.0070.80
possession avg (last 5)50.8049.60
rest days4.078.19
scorer concentration0.180.30
season ppg1.631.45
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.603.40
shots for avg (last 5)9.6014.60
skill v1-0.18-0.56
sot against avg (last 5)4.602.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.303.70
sot for avg (last 3)2.334.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.002.80
squad age27.9324.72
state index0.12-0.20
sterile dominance v10.49-0.45
threat rate (last 10)0.180.24
threat rate (last 3)0.190.30
threat rate (last 5)0.170.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.40