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St Truiden 2–1 Mechelen

← Jupiler Pro League 2020 · Sat, Apr 3, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: K. Van Damme

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Mechelen win39%2.45
St Truiden win33%3.02
Draw28%3.45

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
St Truiden +0.2554%1.82
Mechelen +0.2546%2.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over52%1.85
Under48%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'⚽Yuma Suzuki · St Truiden
41'🟨Sandy Walsh · Mechelen
42'⚽ (pen)Ilombe Mboyo · St Truiden
65'🟨Issa Kaboré · Mechelen
90'⚽Igor De Camargo · Mechelen

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
12Shots15
3On target6
5Corners8
13Fouls9
0Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSt TruidenMechelen
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.410.49
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.430.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.700.58
cards avg (last 5)1.401.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStayen
coach days123.00976.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d0.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.09
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.800.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.004.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.205.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.223.63
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.11
dominance (last 5)0.380.51
elo1499.061571.85
elo momentum (last 5)-36.03-18.94
eye test v1-1.140.02
eye trend v10.02-0.36
first sub minute (last 10)63.8055.20
form points (last 5)2.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.00-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.201.08
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.35
keeper form v10.670.65
league points37.0050.00
league rank16.0010.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet0.006.00
matches since win5.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.6780.25
possession avg (last 5)46.6056.20
rest days28.8613.06
scorer concentration0.340.22
season ppg1.061.35
shot diff avg (last 5)-5.201.00
shots for avg (last 5)7.8014.40
skill v1-0.210.75
sot against avg (last 5)4.002.80
sot for avg (last 10)2.604.30
sot for avg (last 3)1.333.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.204.00
squad age25.6627.32
state index-0.67-0.11
sterile dominance v10.680.55
threat rate (last 10)0.140.21
threat rate (last 3)0.140.23
threat rate (last 5)0.130.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.202.00