⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Genk 2–2 Standard

← Jupiler Pro League 2020 · Fri, Mar 19, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: E. Lambrechts

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Genk win43%2.29
Draw29%3.36
Standard win28%3.40

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Standard −0.2550%1.93
Genk −0.2550%1.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over51%1.92
Under49%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

36'🟨Jhon Lucumí · Genk
44'🟨Junya Ito · Genk
52'⚽João Klauss · Standard
59'⚽Junya Ito · Genk
62'🟨Damjan Pavlović · Standard
69'🟨Hugo Siquet · Standard
72'⚽Junya Ito · Genk
81'⚽Jackson Muleka · Standard
85'🟨Jackson Muleka · Standard
90'🟨Konstantinos Laifis · Standard

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
14Shots20
5On target5
3Corners6
9Fouls15
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGenkStandard
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.420.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.430.44
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.39
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.680.62
cards avg (last 5)2.002.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueLuminus Arena
coach days138.00291.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.09
corner diff avg (last 5)3.403.00
corners against avg (last 5)2.803.00
corners for avg (last 5)6.206.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.094.06
defensive leak (last 5)0.170.16
dominance (last 5)0.540.54
elo1615.341564.22
elo momentum (last 5)-18.10-47.65
eye test v1-0.250.05
eye trend v10.500.01
first sub minute (last 10)55.0054.80
form points (last 5)6.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.850.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.500.25
league points52.0048.00
league rank6.0011.00
matches since blank5.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.0010.00
matches since win0.009.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.0082.00
possession avg (last 5)57.0059.60
rest days12.0012.30
scorer concentration0.390.16
season ppg1.491.33
shot diff avg (last 5)2.602.20
shots for avg (last 5)12.6013.40
skill v10.871.13
sot against avg (last 5)3.803.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.704.30
sot for avg (last 3)5.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.804.00
squad age24.1724.22
state index0.12-0.80
sterile dominance v10.991.15
threat rate (last 10)0.160.22
threat rate (last 3)0.240.20
threat rate (last 5)0.190.19
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.20