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Genk 2–0 Club Brugge

← Jupiler Pro League 2020 · Sun, Mar 7, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: A. Boucaut

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Genk win50%1.92
Draw26%3.75
Club Brugge win24%4.14

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Genk −0.551%1.92
Club Brugge −0.549%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over53%1.83
Under47%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'⚽Paul Onuachu · Genk
20'🟨Jean Marcelin · Club Brugge
24'⚽Junya Ito · Genk
27'🟨Hannes Van Der Bruggen · Club Brugge
37'🟨Bryan Heynen · Genk
39'🟨Hannes Van Der Bruggen · Club Brugge
39'🟥Hannes Van Der Bruggen · Club Brugge
87'🟨Strahinja Pavlović · Club Brugge

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
15Shots7
8On target1
8Corners2
9Fouls17
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGenkClub Brugge
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.450.43
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.39
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.680.68
cards avg (last 5)2.401.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueLuminus Arena
coach days126.0034.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.006.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.12
corner diff avg (last 5)2.001.00
corners against avg (last 5)3.203.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.204.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.812.39
defensive leak (last 5)0.170.02
dominance (last 5)0.490.70
elo1601.281639.63
elo momentum (last 5)-32.3539.84
eye test v1-0.45-1.04
eye trend v1-0.24-0.27
first sub minute (last 10)54.4070.00
form points (last 5)4.0015.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.602.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.600.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.002.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.951.25
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.45
keeper form v1—0.64
league points49.0095.00
league rank9.001.00
matches since blank4.005.00
matches since clean sheet4.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.4071.00
possession avg (last 5)56.0047.60
rest days9.000.20
scorer concentration0.390.34
season ppg1.441.64
shot diff avg (last 5)0.408.80
shots for avg (last 5)12.0015.40
skill v10.56-0.68
sot against avg (last 5)4.800.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.902.50
sot for avg (last 3)3.331.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.401.60
squad age23.7922.98
state index-0.221.14
sterile dominance v10.930.13
threat rate (last 10)0.180.20
threat rate (last 3)0.210.19
threat rate (last 5)0.180.18
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.80