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Genk 1–2 Beerschot VA

← Jupiler Pro League 2020 · Sun, Feb 21, 05:15 PM UTC · ref: B. Put

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Genk win59%1.65
Draw23%4.50
Beerschot VA win18%5.40

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Beerschot VA −154%1.79
Genk −146%2.11

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over57%1.67
Under43%2.27

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'🟨Stipe Radić · Beerschot VA
59'🟨Ryan Sanusi · Beerschot VA
65'⚽Jan Van den Bergh · Beerschot VA
66'🟨Théo Bongonda · Genk
81'🟨Daniel Muñoz · Genk
82'⚽ (pen)Raphael Holzhauser · Beerschot VA
89'🟨Tom Pietermaat · Beerschot VA
90'⚽Patrik Hrošovský · Genk

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
20Shots12
6On target5
10Corners3
12Fouls11
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGenkBeerschot VA
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.510.51
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.48
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.47
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
cards avg (last 5)1.801.80
coach days
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueLuminus Arena
112.00
51.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.13
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.60-2.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.006.80
corners for avg (last 5)3.404.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.640.99
defensive leak (last 5)0.190.06
dominance (last 5)0.430.40
elo1603.381527.82
elo momentum (last 5)-34.101.33
eye test v1-0.98-0.39
eye trend v1-0.730.04
first sub minute (last 10)53.7058.10
form points (last 5)4.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.000.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.270.88
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.20
league points46.0049.00
league rank12.006.00
matches since blank2.004.00
matches since clean sheet2.002.00
matches since win3.002.00
possession avg (last 5)57.2042.60
rest days3.977.09
scorer concentration0.400.19
season ppg1.441.53
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.20-4.60
shots for avg (last 5)9.609.40
sot against avg (last 5)4.204.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.504.20
sot for avg (last 3)2.674.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.603.60
squad age23.7927.25
state index-0.36-0.02
sterile dominance v11.720.12
threat rate (last 10)0.170.19
threat rate (last 3)0.130.24
threat rate (last 5)0.130.18
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.80