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Gent 2–2 AS Eupen

← Jupiler Pro League 2020 · Sun, Feb 7, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: N. Laforge

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gent win56%1.71
Draw25%3.98
AS Eupen win19%5.25

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gent −0.7550%1.93
AS Eupen −0.7550%1.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over56%1.72
Under44%2.19

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'⚽Smail Prevljak · AS Eupen
27'⚽Tarik Tissoudali · Gent
30'⚽Tarik Tissoudali · Gent
40'🟨Dino Arslanagić · Gent
63'🟨Andreas Hanche-Olsen · Gent
64'⚽ (pen)Smail Prevljak · AS Eupen
90'🟨Roman Yaremchuk · Gent
90'🟨Niklas Dorsch · Gent
90'🟨Jonathan Heris · AS Eupen
90'🟨Stef Peeters · AS Eupen

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
9Shots7
3On target4
3Corners1
10Fouls16
4Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGentAS Eupen
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.480.50
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.510.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.510.52
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.20
box share (last 5)0.63—
cards avg (last 5)1.601.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueGHELAMCO-arena
coach days68.00617.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d5.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.09
corner diff avg (last 5)2.602.00
corners against avg (last 5)2.804.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.406.40
corners volatility (last 10)3.372.75
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.14
dominance (last 5)0.660.59
elo1617.451494.51
elo momentum (last 5)35.773.77
eye test v10.430.19
eye trend v10.01-0.14
first sub minute (last 10)63.5053.30
form points (last 5)9.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.20-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.401.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.101.03
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.35
keeper form v10.63—
league points44.0033.00
league rank10.0017.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.004.00
matches since win2.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.60—
possession avg (last 5)52.6046.00
rest days7.108.09
scorer concentration0.320.33
season ppg1.471.14
shot diff avg (last 5)7.004.20
shots for avg (last 5)14.6014.80
skill v10.73—
sot against avg (last 5)3.806.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.104.30
sot for avg (last 3)5.674.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.004.60
squad age27.01—
state index0.76-0.22
sterile dominance v10.810.13
threat rate (last 10)0.200.20
threat rate (last 3)0.200.23
threat rate (last 5)0.190.21
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.80