← Ligue 2 2020 · Sat, May 8, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Florent Batta, France
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Toulouse FC win | 66% | 1.45 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.36 |
| Caen win | 11% | 9.00 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Caen −1.25 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Toulouse FC −1.25 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.86 |
| Over | 48% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | ⚽ | Brecht Dejaegere · Toulouse FC |
| 57' | 🟨 | Anthony Weber · Caen |
| 66' | 🟨 | Steeve Yago · Caen |
| 66' | 🟨 | Steeve Yago · Caen |
| 66' | 🟥 | Steeve Yago · Caen |
| 67' | ⚽ | Vakoun Issouf Bayo · Toulouse FC |
| 81' | ⚽ | Nathan N'Goumou · Toulouse FC |
| 82' | 🟨 | Kevin Mbala · Caen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 15 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 7 | Fouls | 17 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Toulouse FC | Caen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stadium de Toulouse |
| coach days | 341.00 | 585.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.84 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1562.97 | 1397.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.40 | -12.51 |
| eye test v1 | 0.05 | -0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.60 | 53.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.70 |
| league points | 67.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 12.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 42.60 |
| rest days | 4.04 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.81 | 1.03 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.11 | -0.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 24.59 | 26.40 |
| state index | 0.58 | -1.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.41 | -0.72 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.20 |