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Le Havre AC 0–1 Toulouse FC

← Ligue 2 2020 · Tue, May 4, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Remi Landry, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Toulouse FC win47%2.02
Draw30%3.30
Le Havre AC win23%4.25

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Le Havre AC +0.552%1.88
Toulouse FC +0.548%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under56%1.71
Over44%2.20

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'🟨Alexandre Bonnet · Le Havre AC
28'⚽Manu Koné · Toulouse FC
47'🟨Branco van den Boomen · Toulouse FC
60'🟨Alexandre Bonnet · Le Havre AC
60'🟥Alexandre Bonnet · Le Havre AC
69'🟨Victor Lekhal · Le Havre AC
70'🟨Ruben Gabrielsen · Toulouse FC
77'🟨Stijn Spierings · Toulouse FC
83'🟨Sébastien Dewaest · Toulouse FC
89'🟨Khalid Boutaïb · Le Havre AC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
8Shots8
2On target3
5Corners2
20Fouls18
4Yellow cards4
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLe Havre ACToulouse FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.420.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.500.20
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.420.24
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.05
box share (last 5)0.700.63
cards avg (last 5)1.402.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Océane
coach days673.00337.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.10
corner diff avg (last 5)0.600.40
corners against avg (last 5)3.405.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.005.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.622.77
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.13
dominance (last 5)0.500.56
elo1442.531554.45
elo momentum (last 5)-11.83-13.71
eye test v10.22-0.10
eye trend v10.06-0.11
first sub minute (last 10)56.3060.80
form points (last 5)4.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.741.64
h2 goals (last 10)0.501.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.30
keeper form v10.670.70
league points41.0064.00
league rank16.004.00
matches since blank5.004.00
matches since clean sheet6.001.00
matches since win6.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.8075.20
possession avg (last 5)50.8050.80
rest days2.963.17
scorer concentration0.210.20
season ppg1.141.78
shot diff avg (last 5)0.003.80
shots for avg (last 5)11.6014.20
skill v10.35-0.07
sot against avg (last 5)4.602.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.904.70
sot for avg (last 3)6.003.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.403.80
squad age28.4823.23
state index-0.72-0.08
sterile dominance v10.23-0.49
threat rate (last 10)0.260.28
threat rate (last 3)0.220.35
threat rate (last 5)0.240.31
venue ppg (last 5)0.400.20