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Le Havre AC 2–4 Chambly Thelle FC

← Ligue 2 2020 · Sat, May 1, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Nicolas Rainville, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Le Havre AC win49%1.95
Draw29%3.43
Chambly Thelle FC win22%4.50

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Chambly Thelle FC −0.550%1.93
Le Havre AC −0.550%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under58%1.64
Over42%2.33

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

10'🟨Alexandre Bonnet · Le Havre AC
20'⚽ (pen)Alexandre Bonnet · Le Havre AC
30'🟨Maxence Derrien · Chambly Thelle FC
40'🟨Fernand Mayembo · Le Havre AC
44'🟨Romain Basque · Le Havre AC
51'⚽Nikola Petković · Chambly Thelle FC
62'⚽ (pen)Joris Correa · Chambly Thelle FC
68'⚽Lucas Camelo · Chambly Thelle FC
73'🟨Quentin Cornette · Le Havre AC
76'🟨Lucas Camelo · Chambly Thelle FC
77'

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
13Shots10
6On target6
4Corners3
12Fouls16
4Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLe Havre ACChambly Thelle FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.410.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.520.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.710.66
cards avg (last 5)1.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Océane
🟨
Oumar Gonzalez · Chambly Thelle FC
78'⚽Quentin Cornette · Le Havre AC
87'⚽Nikola Petković · Chambly Thelle FC
3.00
coach days670.00—
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.11
corner diff avg (last 5)0.200.00
corners against avg (last 5)3.603.20
corners for avg (last 5)3.803.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.631.49
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.09
dominance (last 5)0.500.45
elo1462.841394.54
elo momentum (last 5)-7.6710.27
eye test v1-0.03-0.63
eye trend v1-0.060.38
first sub minute (last 10)55.0057.40
form points (last 5)4.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.630.88
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.25
keeper form v10.740.58
league points41.0033.00
league rank15.0020.00
matches since blank4.001.00
matches since clean sheet5.002.00
matches since win5.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.2070.60
possession avg (last 5)49.4046.00
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.220.20
season ppg1.170.89
shot diff avg (last 5)0.00-2.40
shots for avg (last 5)11.409.80
skill v10.30-0.80
sot against avg (last 5)4.204.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.702.60
sot for avg (last 3)5.003.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.803.20
squad age27.8528.60
state index-0.49-0.52
sterile dominance v10.14-0.20
threat rate (last 10)0.260.19
threat rate (last 3)0.180.21
threat rate (last 5)0.240.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.40